Vietnam's financial market wants to "take off": The goal is clear, the important thing is the ability to execute

The financial market only really plays a role when it can bring capital to the right place where it is needed, with reasonable costs, appropriate deadlines and controlled risks. Over the years, Vietnam has built an increasingly large financial system, but the market structure is still not truly balanced. The economy is also significantly dependent on bank credit; the stock market, bonds, insurance and long-term investment institutions have not developed commensurately; while many new financial products still lack legal corridors and operational infrastructure.

The biggest expectation is to transform the financial market from a system that mainly serves short-term capital needs to a medium- and long-term capital allocation platform for Vietnam's development process. 

The Prime Minister's Decision No. 1413/QD-TTg dated July 27, 2026 approving the Project "Overall reform of Vietnam's financial market in association with the implementation of the target of high and continuous growth by 2045"[1] has launched a reform program with a very wide scope. The project not only aims to increase the size of the market but also aims to change the structure, management methods, quality of investors, products, infrastructure, human resources and the level of integration.

The biggest expectation is to transform the financial market from a system that mainly serves short-term capital needs to a medium- and long-term capital allocation platform for Vietnam's development process. However, for this expectation to become a reality, the most important challenge is no longer to determine "what to do", but how to ensure that reforms are implemented synchronously, on time and create measurable change in the market.

From scaling to market restructuring

The overall objective of the Scheme is to build Vietnam's financial market to develop synchronously, modernly and integrate with the region and the world; have a balanced and reasonable structure and be able to mobilize and effectively allocate domestic and foreign resources.

By 2045, the financial market is expected to reach a high level of development, operating according to market principles, with institutions, infrastructure, products, investors and supervision mechanisms approaching international standards. In that structure, the stock market plays a key role; the banking system develops safely and modernly; the insurance market becomes a source of long-term capital; and the Vietnam International Financial Center is the focal point connecting capital flows and financial services in the region.

It is worth noting that the Scheme does not consider the increase in total assets or the number of transactions as the only measure. Reform is placed in the overall renewal of the growth model, synchronous with the reform of enterprises, land, labor and administration. This reflects a rational approach: the financial market cannot operate effectively if property rights are not clear, businesses lack transparency, administrative procedures are still complicated or the mechanism for handling collateral is not effective.

A market with a large scale but capital flows continue to focus on a number of sectors, low risk valuation and investors who mainly follow short-term fluctuations cannot be considered a developed market. Therefore, the core goal must be to improve the quality of capital allocation, rather than just expanding the amount of capital put into the system.

The capital market must become a substantive mobilization channel

One of the most important orientations is to reduce the economy's dependence on bank credit. In the period of 2026-2030, the value of capital mobilization in the capital market is set at an average of about VND 2 million billion per year; the total value of enterprise capital mobilized through the stock market will reach VND 5.4 million billion.

In the period of 2031-2045, capital mobilized through the capital market is expected to contribute from 30% to 35% of the total realized investment capital of the whole society, excluding the foreign-invested sector. By 2045, the capitalization of the stock market is expected to reach 120% of GDP, while the outstanding debt of the bond market will reach 60% of GDP.

These numbers show great expectations, but scale only makes sense when it comes to the quality of goods. For the stock and bond market to truly provide long-term capital, Vietnam needs more large enterprises with good governance foundations, transparent financial situation and the ability to generate sustainable cash flows to participate in listing or issuing to the public.

Accelerating equitization, divestment of state capital, putting post-equitized enterprises on trading registration, researching the listing of shares of foreign-invested enterprises, and developing a separate market for innovative enterprises can significantly expand the source of goods. However, if the number is only increased without improving information disclosure, corporate governance, and managerial responsibility, the larger scale may also entail greater risks.

For corporate bonds, credit rating requirements need to become an intrinsic risk valuation tool. Classifying bonds according to risk level, developing bond valuation organizations, and standardizing information about issuers will help investors better distinguish between a fixed-income product and an investment that is likely to lose capital. The market is only sustainable when the cost price reflects the right risk, rather than relying mainly on commercial reputation or the expectation of support when difficulties occur.

Building a long-term investor class

It is difficult for Vietnam's financial market to develop stably if individual investors continue to dominate absolutely and cash flows are often dominated by short-term sentiment. Therefore, the Scheme prioritizes the development of institutional investors such as investment funds, pension funds and insurance enterprises.

By 2030, the total net asset value of securities investment funds is targeted to reach 5% of GDP; the total assets of pension funds will increase by an average of 11.5% per year. The value of investment assets of foreign investors in the capital and securities markets is expected to reach about 15% of GDP.

To achieve these goals, Vietnam needs to create conditions for investment funds and insurers to participate more deeply in infrastructure bonds, real estate investment funds, ESG products and long-term projects. The study and application of the Code of Responsible Institutional Investors also needs to be implemented substantively, so that organizations not only provide capital but also promote businesses to improve governance and accountability.

At the same time, individual investors need to be encouraged to participate in the market through professional institutions. This is not a restriction on the right to invest directly, but to create more options to help people diversify their portfolios, reduce risks and access professional asset management.

Modernizing banks without sacrificing safety

Banks will remain the mainstay of the financial system for the foreseeable future. The goal by 2030 is that 100% of commercial banks will apply regulatory prudential ratios and approach Basel III. In addition, at least 75% of adults are expected to have credit history information in the State Bank's credit information system.

Banking reform is not just about developing digital banking. The more difficult task is to improve credit quality, handle bad debts, limit cross-ownership, control capital flows into risk areas, and shift from compliance monitoring to risk-based supervision.

The project sets out the direction of developing a national debt exchange on a digital platform, standardizing information on debts and collateral, organizing electronic auctions and building a mechanism for establishing prices according to supply and demand. If properly implemented, the debt trading market can become an important tool to free up resources trapped in inefficient debts and assets.

However, the prerequisite is still the ability to handle collateral quickly, transparently, and predictably. If the rights of creditors are difficult to enforce or the legal records of the assets are incomplete, it is difficult for the exchange to create real liquidity, no matter how modern.

A new space for digital assets, green finance and insurance

The scheme opens a remarkable chapter of reform for digital assets and digital assets. The regulatory framework is expected to be developed in the direction of clearly classifying digital assets for payments, utility tokens, and digitized securities or real asset tokens. The roadmap is oriented from controlled testing to digitized securities, tokenization of real assets, bonds and digitized investment funds.

This approach shows that the goal is not to legalize all existing activities, but to bring innovation into a conditional framework of financial, technological, governance, and compliance capacity. This is a necessary option because digital assets can expand the ability to raise capital, but also pose risks to asset ownership, investor protection, cybersecurity, money laundering, and cross-border capital flows.

Green finance is also identified as an important component through green bonds, sustainable bonds, green stocks, ESG funds, and green stock indexes. However, this market can only develop if the criteria for identifying green projects are clear enough, environmental data is reliable, and there is a mechanism to prevent "greening" projects that do not meet standards.

For insurance, the goal by 2030 is that market revenue will reach about 3.3%–3.5% of GDP; by 2045, 20% of the population will participate in life insurance. To achieve that expectation, the insurance industry must restore customer trust by product transparency, professionalization of distribution channels, reduction of disputes, and increased accountability in consulting. Technology can only help the market develop when it is accompanied by a more effective mechanism to protect insurers.

The scheme already has goals, tasks, presiding agencies and many specific timelines.

Infrastructure and data must be ahead of new products

A modern market cannot operate on distributed infrastructure and data that lacks connectivity. The project aims to implement a central clearing partner mechanism for the underlying securities market in 2027; establish a modern payment infrastructure capable of connecting regions and internationals by 2028 at the latest; operate the carbon credit trading market from 2029; build a shared database for financial management and supervision in the period of 2030-2035.

The application of artificial intelligence, big data, blockchain, RegTech,[2] and SupTech[3] is expected to help regulators detect abnormal transactions, price manipulation, insider trading, cross-ownership, and abnormal cash flows.

But technology does not automatically create transparency. For real-time monitoring, the input data must be complete, accurate and interoperable. The data sharing mechanism between finance, banking, tax, customs, business registration and population management agencies must simultaneously address the requirements of security, data protection and delineation of responsibilities when data is misused.

The institution must shift from "following" to "leading"

The scheme identifies institutional reform as a pillar. The list of tasks includes amending the Law on Securities; studying the development of the Law on Digital Assets and Digital Assets; amending the Law on Insurance Business; completing the law on banking, foreign exchange, and handling bad debts; and proceeding to develop a separate law on the International Financial Center.

The problem to avoid is to build each law under a separate scope of management, while new financial products are increasingly interdisciplinary. A tokenized asset can be simultaneously related to civil law, securities, investment, foreign exchange, taxation, money laundering prevention, and data protection. If each agency only manages its "part", businesses may fall into a situation where they comply with one regulation but violate another.

Therefore, an important requirement is to establish a mechanism for coordinating supervision between banks, securities and insurance; monitoring financial groups on the basis of consolidation; controlling cross-ownership and capital circulation between relevant legal entities. The study of a law on the management and supervision of financial markets and financial services may be a necessary step when conditions are ripe.

What determines the ability to "take off"?

The scheme already has goals, tasks, presiding agencies and many specific timelines. However, for the market to truly change, at least four requirements must be ensured.

Firstly, reform must be synchronous. It is impossible to develop infrastructure bonds if the legal obstacles of the project have not been removed; it is impossible to form a debt trading market if the collateral is difficult to handle; nor can it attract long-term foreign capital if the regulations on ownership, foreign exchange, taxation and profit transfer are inconsistent.

Second, enforcement discipline must be placed on a par with policy ambitions. The establishment of the Steering Committee, the development of a set of mid-term monitoring and evaluation targets by 2030 should be associated with the accountability of each agency, each task and each deadline.

Third, the protection of financial investors and consumers must become the foundation. The market cannot develop sustainably if violations of information disclosure, price manipulation, false advice or conflicts of interest are not detected and dealt with in a timely manner.

Fourth, businesses and financial institutions must change themselves. International standards are not only a requirement for regulators. Businesses need to upgrade their governance, financial reporting, data management, internal control, information disclosure and risk management capacity now.

Vietnam's financial market does not lack capital, investment demand or growth opportunities. What is missing is a mechanism that is effective enough to turn that resource into long-term, transparent and well-allocated capital flows. The reform scheme has created a blueprint with a vision to 2045. But the market can only "take off" when the institution builds trust, the infrastructure keeps up with the product, and all actors are accountable for their decisions. At that time, the growth of the financial market will not only be measured by capitalization or transaction volume, but by the real capacity to finance the long-term development of the Vietnamese economy.